Predictor of future exacerbations

The strongest predictor for an exacerbation was a previous exacerbation; the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for a past history exceeded the OR for all other measured risk factors. Further, the likelihood of a future exacerbation increased with the number of previous exacerbations. Published predictors of future exacerbations include previous exacerbation, airflow obstruction, poor overall health, home oxygen use, and gastroesophageal reflux.Objectives: To determine the value of adding blood biomarkers to clinical variables to predict exacerbations.Methods: Subjects from the SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study) (n = 1,544) and COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) (n = 602) cohorts had 90 plasma or serum candidate proteins

This analysis suggests that recent severe asthma exacerbations are a strong independent factor predicting future exacerbations and, as such, should be  5 Feb 2019 In order to predict exacerbation until the next visit based on the knowledge of but also as a risk evaluation for possible future exacerbations. Despite prediction scores and biomarker studies, a previous exacerbation remains the best predictor of future exacerbations, suggesting risk may reflect  10 Feb 2020 During the follow-up, the rate of moderate/severe exacerbations was significantly lower in controlled patients (rate ratio, 0.56, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.65  21 Jun 2018 Future risk was defined as Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) score of 1.5 or more at 12 months or the experience of at least 1 exacerbation 

Predictors of exacerbations are low FEV1 levels in stability, high BMI and the need for permanent treatment with oral corticosteroids. Do you want to read the rest of this article?

Conclusion: Optimal guideline-based asthma management results in minimal occurrence of exacerbations in the majority of patients. Predictors of exacerbations are low FEV 1 levels in stability, high BMI and the need for permanent treatment with oral corticosteroids. FEV1 May Not Be Significant Predictor of COPD Exacerbations. Forced expiratory volume over 1 second (FEV 1 ) might not be a significant factor in the future exacerbation risk for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), according to a new report. “Our findings indicate that a prior asthma exacerbation remains a predictor of a future exacerbation in patients with severe or difficult-to-treat asthma even after a decade,” the authors wrote. It is well known that a history of exacerbation is the single best clinical predictor of future exacerbations in COPD. 8 Our study extends this finding from COPD to asthma. Interestingly, the severity of respiratory symptoms measured by visual analog scale symptom score also predicted the exacerbation frequency in both asthma and COPD.

Steroid bursts as predictor identified more recent exacerbations (n = 870) compared with severe exacerbations (n = 244); however, steroid bursts may be a less-specific measure of exacerbations compared with RSE and may be subject to recall bias. Also, the primary and secondary analysis predictors and outcomes are not mutually exclusive as severe exacerbations occurring under supervision of appropriate asthma medical care likely resulted in steroid bursts.

Exacerbations the previous year was the variable most strongly associated with future exacerbations in both patient groups ( P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the OR of previous exacerbation as predictor of future exacerbation was 16.8 (95% CI 5.6–50.4) in patients with COPD and 5.5 (95% CI 2.3–12.7) Prediction of future exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major concern for long-term management of this disease. Conclusion: Optimal guideline-based asthma management results in minimal occurrence of exacerbations in the majority of patients. Predictors of exacerbations are low FEV 1 levels in stability, high BMI and the need for permanent treatment with oral corticosteroids. FEV1 May Not Be Significant Predictor of COPD Exacerbations. Forced expiratory volume over 1 second (FEV 1 ) might not be a significant factor in the future exacerbation risk for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), according to a new report. “Our findings indicate that a prior asthma exacerbation remains a predictor of a future exacerbation in patients with severe or difficult-to-treat asthma even after a decade,” the authors wrote.

1 Mar 2007 This analysis suggests that recent severe asthma exacerbations are a strong independent factor predicting future exacerbations and, as such, 

To investigate the risk of future severe exacerbations (FSEs) in children with severe/difficult-to-treat asthma and recent severe exacerbations (RSEs). Methods . We  Airway IL-1β and Systemic Inflammation as Predictors of Future Exacerbation Risk IL-1β-systemic inflammatory axis leading to future exacerbations in COPD . (J Allergy Clin. Immunol 2009;124:921-7.) Key words: Severe asthma, pediatric asthma, exacerbation, predictor of exacerbation, corticosteroid burst, long-term 

Exacerbations the previous year was the variable most strongly associated with future exacerbations in both patient groups ( P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the OR of previous exacerbation as predictor of future exacerbation was 16.8 (95% CI 5.6–50.4) in patients with COPD and 5.5 (95% CI 2.3–12.7)

(J Allergy Clin. Immunol 2009;124:921-7.) Key words: Severe asthma, pediatric asthma, exacerbation, predictor of exacerbation, corticosteroid burst, long-term  15 Nov 2017 Given the finding that high blood eosinophil counts is predictive of future exacerbations in asthma, it was important to determine whether a  best predictor of future cumulative 5-year risk of subsequent exacerbations, both for the total population and the GOLD D group. Conclusion: ExH and IC/TLC  Quality assessment and hypertension. Fu (2015). Airway IL-1beta and Systemic. Inflammation as Predictors of Future. Exacerbation Risk in Asthma and. COPD.

The study found that, while previous exacerbation was the strongest predictor for future exacerbation, the CTR was an effective measure for identification of people diagnosed with COPD who are at increased risk of severe exacerbation. Exacerbations were not adjudicated by a committee in any study. The prediction models were mainly based on prospective cohort studies (control arm of a randomised controlled trial for one model [ 30 ]), while two prediction models were based on retrospective cohort studies [ 28, 46 ]). Background: Exacerbations are recognized as the most relevant predictor of future risk in asthmatics. We aimed to evaluate the association between asthma exacerbations, fractional exhaled nitric COPD clinical control as a predictor of future exacerbations: concept validation in the SPARK study population Miriam Barrecheguren 1 , Konstantinos Kostikas 2 , Exacerbations the previous year was the variable most strongly associated with future exacerbations in both patient groups ( P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the OR of previous exacerbation as predictor of future exacerbation was 16.8 (95% CI 5.6–50.4) in patients with COPD and 5.5 (95% CI 2.3–12.7) Prediction of future exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major concern for long-term management of this disease. Conclusion: Optimal guideline-based asthma management results in minimal occurrence of exacerbations in the majority of patients. Predictors of exacerbations are low FEV 1 levels in stability, high BMI and the need for permanent treatment with oral corticosteroids.